Is global warming real?

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    Is Global Warming for Real?
    J. C. Sprott
    Department of Physics
    University of Wisconsin - Madison
    Presented at the
    Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar
    In Madison, Wisconsin
    On January 17, 2006
    Entire presentation available on WWW
    Some Evidence
    From Recent Seminars
    Greenland Ice-core Data (C. S. Clay)
    Lake Mendota Ice Cover (John Magnuson)
    782,000 years
    150 years
    Prediction Methods
    Extrapolation methods
    Simple extrapolation
    Moving average
    Trends
    Linear methods
    Simple regression
    Autoregression
    All poles method
    Nonlinear methods
    Method of analogs
    Artificial neural network
    Simple Extrapolation
    Order = 0
    1
    2
    3
    Fit the last few points to a polynomial
    Moving Average
    Lags = 0
    1
    2
    3
    Average some number of previous points
    Trends
    Lags = 0
    1
    2
    Follow the trend of some number of previous points
    Linear Regression
    Order = 0
    1
    2
    Fit a polynomial to the entire data set
    3
    Autoregression
    Order = 0
    2
    4
    xt = a0 + a1xt-1 + a2xt-2 + …
    All Poles Method
    Poles = 0
    2
    4
    Assume a sum of poles in the complex plane
    1
    Method of Analogs
    Lags = 0
    2
    Find the closest similar previous sequence
    1
    Artificial Neural Network
    Lags = 3
    xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + ai2xt-2 + ai3xt-3]
    tanh x
    x
    D aij N bi
    6 neurons
    Artificial Neural Network
    Lags = 3
    xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + ai2xt-2 + ai3xt-3]
    6 neurons
    Artificial Neural Network
    Lags = 4
    xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + … + ai4xt-4]
    6 neurons
    Artificial Neural Network
    Lags = 9
    xt = xt-1 + Sbitanh[ai0 + ai1xt-1 + … + ai9xt-9]
    6 neurons
    This year: 26 days

    資料の原本内容( テキストデータ全体をみる )

    Is Global Warming for Real?
    J. C. Sprott
    Department of Physics
    University of Wisconsin - Madison
    Presented at the
    Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar
    In Madison, Wisconsin
    On January 17, 2006
    Entire presentation available on WWW
    Some Evidence
    From Recent Seminars
    Greenland Ice-core Data (C. S. Clay)
    Lake Mendota Ice Cover (John Magnuson)
    782,000 years
    150 years
    Prediction Methods
    Extrapolation methods
    Simple extrapolation
    Moving average
    Trends
    Linear methods
    Simple regression
    Autoregression
    All po..

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